So, I found some new toys. As these toys start to accumulate like junk cars in a Maine backyard, it becomes easier to spot trends for wagering. As a betting man, I thought I would share four wagers that I am seriously looking at for tomorrow. Hopefully, we can all make some money together.
Miami (FL) at North Carolina
Line: UNC (-5) Total: 145 points
This pick is all about North Carolina. Not only are the Tar Heels 3-10 straight up in their last 13 games, but they haven’t even been close to good. The Heels are an atrocious 1-8 against the spread at home, underperforming the line an average of -12.3 points per game.
The Hurricanes are 4-3 ATS coming off a loss and were just embarrassed in Durham on Tuesday night. Coach Jim Larranaga is also 4-1 ATS in his last five games in Chapel Hill. In his career, Hurricanes point guard Chris Lykes is averaging 17.8 points and 4 assists per game against North Carolina, including a 27 point outburst in Chapel Hill last season.
Since the injury to Cole Anthony, the North Carolina offense, which was mediocre to begin with at 0.84 points per possession, has dipped to 0.81, which places them in the 8th percentile in the nation. The Heels have defended the pick and roll fairly well which is a staple in the Miami offense, so that is a positive.
Pick: Miami (FL) to cover
Kansas State at Alabama
Line: Alabama (-9) Total: 146 points
Alabama is the best team in the nation in terms of covering the spread. The Crimson Tide are 15-3 ATS on the season and 7-1 ATS at home, covering the spread by an average of 6.9 points in those eight games. Kira Lewis is averaging roughly 19 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists at home this season while shooting 37.5% from deep. John Petty is shooting 40.4% from behind the arc at home as well.
Meanwhile, Kansas State is the worst team in the Big 12 against the spread at 8-10 overall and just 1-3 on the road. The Wildcats are underperforming the spread by 2.6 points per game in true road games.
Alabama does like to give up some points (76.7) and K-State games have hit the over in three consecutive contests so be sure to give the total a look as well.
Pick: Roll Tide
Virginia Commonwealth at La Salle
Line: VCU (-7) Total: 134 points
In this game, you have the best team in the Atlantic 10 ATS, against the worst team in the Atlantic 10 ATS. But it’s most likely not the way you are thinking. The Explorers are 12-6 against the spread in 2019-20 while VCU is just 6-12. La Salle is 2-1 ATS as a home underdog this season and 5-3 overall ATS at home.
A word of caution, VCU is 3-0 ATS on the road as the favorite, but it feels like a sort of outlier given the rest of the trends.
On the season, both teams like to underperform the total. La Salle by a point and VCU by a shade over two points per game. The Rams’ field goal percentage has decreased in each of their last three road games while La Salle has shot over 40% in just three of their eight home games. On the total, VCU has gone under in 11 of their 19 games while La Salle has hit the under in half of theirs.
UNC-Asheville at South Carolina Upstate
Line: Not Posted Total: Not Posted
USC-Upstate is currently the best team in the nation as a home dog at 5-0 against the spread on the season and covering the spread by almost 9 points per game. Asheville enters the games as a modest favorite but is just 2-2 as a road favorite on the season and is under-performing the spread in those four games by an average of -3.8 points per game. They are also just 4-5 straight up in true road games this season.
Sophomore guard Everette Hammond is averaging over 20 points per game in eight home games this season while shooting nearly 40% from behind the arc in the friendly confines. Freshman guard Tommy Brunner also prefers to play at home, averaging more points, assists, rebounds and steals at home while shooting 20% from the free-throw line and getting their over three times as often. The line for this game will be added later, but Kenpom currently has Asheville (-3). Expect the line to be within a half a point of that in either direction. Regardless, the pick is the same.
Pick: Upstate Moneyline