ACCBR’s Contenders, Pretenders & Lottery Tickets

In my last piece, I took a look back at how all 15 ACC teams fared against the spread in 2018-19. Now it’s time to look at their “FUTURES”.

In case you were unaware, the odds to win the 2020 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship were posted last week. Now it’s real, you can walk into a sports book (preferable for reasons I’ll get into later) or go online and put your money where your brain is.

In this piece I’ll post the odds for all the ACC teams. I’ll offer up picks from the ACCBR team and I’ll tell you why futures betting has become more bettor friendly over the last few years and give a shout out to a company which I think has had a lot to do with that.

I used three different sites when compiling the odds for this piece. 1) Bet Online (BOL), 2) BetUS and 3) Mybookie.ag which offered odds on all but 2 ACC teams.

CONTENDERS: DUKE, UNC, UVA, LOUISVILLE

Duke: The Blue Devils are the betting favorite to win it all among ACC teams.

BetUS: 8-1 BOL: 9-1 MyBookie.com: 9-1

Thought: I think Duke is priced perfectly. I see no real value and will take a pass.

UNC: Carolina will be good again. Will they be Final 4 good? I don’t know, but if the answer is yes, UNC at 14-1 is a nice price.

BetUS: 14-1 BOL: 14-1 MyBookie.com: 15-1

Thought: I’d play UNC at 14-1 before Duke at 9-1.

UVA: The odds on Virginia were shocking to me and my colleagues at ACCBR. The Cavs were a possession away from losing their last 3 NCAA tourney games with the most talented team they’ve had in years.

BetUS: 14-1 BOL: 12-1 MyBookie.com: 8.5-1

Thought: I love Tony Bennett as CEO but if UVA was a stock i’d short the shit out of it at these prices. No repeat from UVA.

Louisville: Like him or not, Chris Mack can coach. With the return of Jordan Nwora and some nice pieces around him, the Cards look like a bargain at these prices.

BetUS: 22-1 BOL: 16-1 MyBookie: 25-1

Thought: I like Louisville A LOT and so does the rest of the ACCBR team. See the picks section.

PRETENDERS: FSU, SYRACUSE, NC STATE, NOTRE DAME

I have no comments on the pretenders as a group. Just the odds and a quick thought.

FSU: BetUS: 35-1 BOL: 50-1 MyBookie.com: 40-1

Thought: The ‘Noles have performed pretty well in the post season in recent years, but I have no idea what to expect from them this year.

Syracuse: BetUS: 45-1 BOL: 66-1 MyBookie.com: 50-1

Thought: First round exit last year. Will the Cuse be any better this year? I doubt it.

NCSU: BetUS: 150-1 BOL: No Line MyBookie.com: 200-1

Thought: Vegas seems to hate NC State and I don’t get it. I think they are going to be really good. I am going to sprinkle a bit on the Wolfpack at 150-1 or 200-1. When they win the ACC regular season title I’m hitting PropSwap to cash my ticket. (More on that in a bit).

NOTRE DAME: BetUS: 120-1 BOL: No line MyBookie.com: 150-1

Thought: Coach Hunter loves the Irish which is reason enough for us all to pay attention.

***Editor’s Note: I think Notre Dame is a perfect propswap team as well-ACCBR1***

LOTTERY TICKETS: Miami(FL), Va.Tech, Clemson, Pitt, Wake, BC, Ga,Tech

Once again, with these it’s just odds and a quick thought.

Miami: BetUS: 250-1 BOL: NL MyBookie.com: 200-1

Thought: Chris Lykes is awesome. This is not a good enough reason to purchase a Miami ticket to win it all.

Va.Tech: BetUS: 200-1 BOL: NL MyBookie.com: 250-1

Thought: I am a big fan of Mike Young. I am not a fan of shoving money up a goat’s ass. I’ll check in on the Hokies next year.

Clemson: BetUS: NL BOL: NL MyBookie.com: 200-1

Thought: My good pal and teammate at ACCBR @charliemano8 summed up Clemson quite nicely with this quote: ” You couldn’t find a stick long enough for me to touch Clemson at 200-1.” Thank you, Mano.

Pitt: BetUS: NL BOL: NL MyBookie.com: 350-1

Thought: I wish I was wealthy enough to light 100$ bills on fire, I’m not. Therefore, I will pass on Pitt this year.

***Editors Note: If mybookie.ag dislikes Pitt this much (compared to Clemson), their over/under on season win total might be worth giving a look at when it comes out-ACCBR1***

Wake: BetUS: NL BOL: NL MyBookie.com: 500-1

Thought: No.

Ga.Tech: No lines were found.

Thought: I have no idea what this is about. Possibly waiting for NCAA transfer rulings?

BC: No lines were found.

Thought: I’m not sure about this either. Maybe Vegas forgot about them.

TEAM ACCBR PICKS:

Each member of the team was kind enough to hand out an ACC pick and an out of conference selection.

Coach Hunter- @ACCRB1: ACC Pick: Louisville 25-1 | OOC Pick: Kansas 13-1.

Big Kat- @Kinchen1andonly: ACC Pick: Notre Dame 150-1 | OOC Pick: Florida 22-1.

Mano- @Charliemano8: ACC Pick: Louisville 25-1 | OOC Pick(s): Florida 22-1 & Maryland 33-1.

Chimp -@caraychimp: ACC Pick: Louisville 25-1 OOC Pick: Florida 22-1.

3 of 4 like Louisville and 3 of 4 like Florida, this scares me a bit. Will these two teams shit the bed? I doubt it. Hell, we’re experts.

Disclaimer: Past performance is no guarantee and all that shit.

FUTURES BETTING AND PROPSWAP

Sports futures betting has been around for a long time. The difference in the sports futures markets now, as opposed to say five or ten years ago is that now a real market for futures tickets exists and the market is fluid.

It’s not just a buy and hold/hope game anymore. Why? PropSwap. PropSwap is a company, started in 2015, that brokers deals between buyers and sellers of betting tickets.

Why does PropSwap matter, and how can they help you?

Lets say you decide to follow one of us geniuses at ACCBR and purchase a Louisville ticket right now for 100$ at 25-1 to win it all. Lets now fast forward to mid- February. Louisville is 23-3 with wins over Duke, Kentucky, and UNC. You are proudly holding your ticket thinking you’re Nostradamus. The odds on Louisville are now down to 8-1. Here is where PropSwap enters the picture. There is a good chance that there are quite a few people out there willing to take that ticket off your hands. The question is, at what price are you willing to part with it? You can do the math on your own, but the point is you have the CHOICE to unload that ticket now for whatever the market allows or hold on because you think Louisville is going to continue winning which will likely increase the value of your ticket. To me, this is free market capitalism at its finest.

A sports futures bet is an investment with a time limit, and should be treated as such. With most short term investments, people’s emotions tend to rule their judgement. When it’s an investment involving someone’s favorite team, fandom also plays a huge role. Selling into a frenzied crowd when hopes are high is almost always the right thing to do. PropSwap has created the marketplace to help you do just that. There is a cost, you will pay them a 10% (or thereabouts) commission to get your transaction done unless the dollar amount of your ticket is extremely large. Also, unless something has changed, PropSwap does not deal with any online wagers. You must have a paper ticket to transact in this market.

For those interested, I would encourage you to do your homework. Google search PropSwap and read a few articles. Also, give them a follow them on twitter @propswap. They post live tickets all the time. Go to PropSwap’s website and check into the details.

Good luck to all of you who purchase a futures ticket. With PropSwap available, you can be right without waiting for Championship Monday night.

Thanks for reading. Feedback is welcome and please hit me and my teammates at ACCBR up on the twitter. Cheers from the Chimp.

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