ACCBR: 2018-19 Against the Numbers

I decided, with some inspiration from an @ACCBR1 tweet, to take a look back at how the ACC teams fared in 2018-19 from a gambling perspective. I’ve been wagering on college hoops for 30 years. Note, I didn’t say I’ve been winning for 30 years. This exercise was both fun and educational for me. I hope you enjoy it. For those who don’t know, ATS=Against the spread. Here we go……

VIRGINIA: At 26-12 overall ATS, and 14-6 ATS vs. ACC foes the Cavs finished the year 4th in the country and tied for 1st in the ACC ATS. Home (ATS): 11-6/ Away (ATS): 9-1 /Neutral: 6-5.

  • 9-1 away from home ATS is incredible. The only loss ATS was at N.C State in a 66-65 win where UVA was favored by -6.5.
  • UVA was also good at home, going 11-6. In their first 4 home games they were favored by -26.5, -25.5, -39 and -35 they covered 3 of the 4, impressive.
  • The neutral court games were UVA’s kryptonite, they went 6-5. They lost outright to FSU in the ACCT as a -9 point favorite, and went 3-3 ATS in the NCAAT.
  • UVA went 6-2 as 20+ point favs.
  • UVA was a dog only twice all year. They covered both games, +1 at UNC winning outright and +4 @ Duke losing by 2.
  • BEST COVER: Texas Tech as a -1.5 favorite in the National Championship game.
  • WORST LOSS: Notre Dame @ home as a -16.5 point favorite winning the game by 6.
  • BOTTOM LINE: They won it all and they were damn good to the punters.

NORTH CAROLINA: UNC finished the year 22-12-2 ATS. 2nd best overall among ACC teams. Against league foes they were 14-6, tying UVA for the ACC ATS Title. Home:8-6-2 | Away: 10-2 | Neutral:3-4

  • UNC was 11-7-1 as a double digit favorite.
  • UNC was 3-1 as a dog. Winning outright by 8 at NCSU as a +1.5 point dog, winning at Duke by 16 as a +10 dog, and covering the +4.5 vs. Duke in the ACCT losing 74-73.
  • UNC was a stellar 10-2 ATS on the road with the losses coming at Michigan by 17 as a +3.5 dog and at Clemson where they won by 2 as -3.5 point favorite.
  • BEST COVER: @ Duke +10 winning outright
  • WORST LOSS: Miami(FL) -16 winning by just 3.
  • BOTTOM LINE: UNC won 29 games and covered the number in 22 of 36. Well done.

GEORGIA TECH: The Jackets made it tough on their fans in 2018-19, but not so much for the brave sharps that backed them. Tech finished the year a very nice 19-13 ATS, good for 3rd best in the ACC. The Jackets were a tourney team based on their ability to cover the number. Tech was 10-9 vs. ACC teams which tied for 5th. Home:10-8 | Away:8-4 | Neutral: 1-1

  • GT started the year 8-2 ATS. This 10 game stretch included an outright win at Arkansas as a +9 road dog and a nice cover at Tennessee as +15.5 dog.
  • GT was 5-2 as a double digit dog. Covering the +23 @ Duke losing by 13 and winning outright at Syracuse by 14 as a +9 road dog.
  • BEST COVER: Tie- The outright win at ‘Cuse and the cover at Duke.
  • WORST LOSS: Louisville at home +4 losing by 28. Yuck.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Pastner gets his kids to play hard for him. This showed up in the 19 covers. If only the NCAAT committee used this metric.

SYRACUSE: 19-15 ATS for the Cuse last season, not bad. This placed them 4th overall in the ACC. They were a very impressive 13-7 vs. league opponents ranking them 3rd, just 1 game behind UVA and UNC. Home:10-9 | Away:7-3 | Neutral:2-3.

  • Syracuse was 5-2 as a double digit favorite.
  • The Orange were outstanding on the road posting a 7-3 mark ATS.
  • Syracuse was 3-0 as a double digit dog. Winning outright 95-91 at Duke as a +17.5 point road dog. Covering +10.5 @ UNC losing by 8, and once again covering against Duke in the ACCT as a +12.5 dog losing by 12. Gotta love the HOOK.
  • BEST COVER: The outright win @ Duke.
  • WORST LOSS: Losing at home to Ga. Tech by 14 as a -9 point favorite.
  • BOTTOM LINE: When Boeheim is a double digit favorite or a double digit dog PLAY THEM. This was good for an 8-2 mark.

NC STATE: The Wolfpack finished up the year 20-16 ATS, 5th overall among ACC teams. Their 10-10 ATS record against ACC teams placed them 9th. Home:10-12 | Away:7-3 | Neutral:3-1.

  • NCSU covered in 11 of their first 14. This stretch included steamrolling doormats. An 11 point win at Penn St. as a -4.5 point favorite, and a nice cover @ Wisconsin as a +6 road dog losing the game by 4.
  • NCSU was 6-3 as an underdog.
  • NCSU was a double digit favorite 13 times going 7-6 ATS in those games.
  • The Pack covered @ Duke as a +17.5 point dog losing by 17. THE HOOK.
  • NCSU failed to cover in their last 4 games of the year.
  • BEST COVER: Home win vs. Auburn as a + 1.5 dog winning outright by 7.
  • WORST LOSS: Va.Tech at home losing by 23 as a -2.5 point favorite while scoring just 24 points. GRUESOME.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Chimp tip, take a flyer on an NCSU futures ticket to win the ACC regular season title next year.

VIRGINIA TECH: The Hokies were 18-15-1 ATS, good for 6th overall. In the league they were 8-11-1 which ranked 12th. After covering vs. Notre Dame in their ACC opener, they dropped 5 straight ATS and followed that up with a 5 game stretch in February where they went 0-4-1. Home:8-7 | Away:3-6-1 | Neutral:7-2

  • Va.Tech closed the season strong going 6-3 ATS in their last 9.
  • The Hokies were fantastic in neutral site games going 7-2 ATS with the 2 losses coming vs. Liberty in the NCAAT as a -9.5 point favorite winning by 9 (BAD HOOK), and FSU in the ACCT losing in OT by 2 in a pick em’ game.
  • BEST COVER: Duke in the NCAAT as a +7 point dog losing a heart breaker by 2.
  • WORST LOSS: Getting blitzed at UNC by 21 as +4 point dogs.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Mike Young’s Wofford squad went 20-12 ATS last year. Something for Hokie fans and bettors to look forward to?

LOUISVILLE: The Cards went 17-15-2 ATS and 11-9 vs. the league. They were 7th overall and 4th in the standings vs. ACC teams. Louisville was very streaky, as illustrated by two 4 game losing streaks, a 5 game winning streak and a 4 game winning streak. Home:8-8-2 | Away:7-4 | Neutral:2-3.

  • The Cards started 6-1 on the road ATS
  • Louisville was a dog 12 times, going 8-4 ATS with outright wins vs. UNC +11 on the road, Michigan St.+4.5 at home, and at Va.Tech +4.5.
  • After the Duke debacle, Louisville lost 4 straight ATS.
  • Louisville closed the year going 3-6 ATS. Losing to Minnesota in the NCAAT as a -5 point favorite.
  • BEST COVER: At UNC +11 winning the game by 21.
  • WORST LOSS: Losing outright @ B.C. as a -5.5 point favorite.
  • BOTTOM LINE:The Cards covered against some very good teams, but were never the same after the Duke loss at home.

BOSTON COLLEGE: BC went 15-16 ATS which virtually mirrored their W-L record of 14-17. BC tied for 5th in league play ATS going a respectable 10-9. Home: 6-12 | Away:7-3 | Neutral:2-1.

  • BC covered the number in their first 5 road games.
  • BC was 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite.
  • BC covered 5 straight ATS in February, four of those as a dog.
  • BC was 5-13 W-L in the league yet 10-9 ATS in the ACC. Weird, yet good.
  • BEST COVER: Home vs. Louisville as a +5.5 point dog.
  • WORST LOSS: Losing outright at home to IUPUI as a -16 point favorite. Brutal.
  • BOTTOM LINE: There is no bottom line.

DUKE: The darlings of ESPN were not kind to their backers in 2018-19. The Blue Devils finished the year 18-20 ATS and just 10-12 in ACC play which placed them 10th in the league. Home:9-8 | Away:5-4 | Neutral 4-8.

  • Duke was a dog just 3 times all year. Going 2-1 ATS vs. Kentucky, UNC, and UVA.
  • Duke was favored by double digits 24 times going 13-11 in said games.
  • Duke went 3-12 in their last 15 games ATS. Interestingly, this slide started with the miracle comeback win at Louisville.
  • Duke was 0-4 ATS in the NCAAT.
  • BEST COVER: Kentucky in the opener as a +2.5 point dog winning the game by 34.
  • WORST LOSS: Syracuse at home losing 95-91 as a -17.5 favorite.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Duke had a nice season going 32-6, but they probably made a ton of money for the Vegas and offshore books over their last 15 games. Good stuff.

FLORIDA STATE: From January 22nd to February 19th FSU was a red hot 7-1 ATS. The rest of the year was not so good. FSU finished 17-19-1 ATS, which placed them 11th overall among ACC teams. FSU was 11-10 against the league which was 5th best. Home:6-9 | Away:6-8 | Neutral:5-2-1.

  • FSU was 3-8 as a double digit favorite.
  • FSU was a dog 8 times, going 4-4 ATS.
  • During the aforementioned 7-1 ATS eight game hot stretch, the only loss came vs. Ga.Tech in a game they won by 10 as a -12 point favorite.
  • BEST COVER: Winning outright by 10 over UVA in the ACCT as a +9 point dog.
  • WORST LOSS: Losing at Pitt 75-62 as a -4.5 point favorite.
  • BOTTOM LINE: The 29-8 W-L record was stellar, but outside of the 7-1 ATS stretch, FSU was disappointing against the number.

PITTSBURGH: Pitt was 15-16-2 ATS overall, not too bad. In league play, they were an atrocious 6-13-1 which was dead last among ACC teams. Home:10-7-1 | Away:2-8-1 | Neutral:3-1.

  • Pitt started the year 10-3 ATS.
  • From January 19th to March 5th Pitt went 13 games without a cover, going 0-12-1 ATS with the push coming vs. Va.Tech in a 70-64 loss as a +6 dog.
  • BEST COVER: Home win vs. FSU by 13 as a +4.5 point dog.
  • WORST LOSS: An outright loss to Niagara at home by 1 as a -16.5 point favorite.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Pitt had some success early but it was fool’s gold. There was a lot of cash to be made fading Pitt from mid season on.

WAKE FOREST: A forgettable year for Wake fans and bettors alike. 13-18 ATS overall (12th) and 7-13 ATS vs. the ACC (13th). Home:7-9 | Away:4-7 | Neutral:2-2.

  • Wake was a double digit dog 11 times going 4-7 ATS.
  • Wake was not favored in any of their 19 ACC games. Mind boggling stat.
  • 11 of Wake’s 15 ACC losses were by double digits.
  • Surprisingly, Wake covered the number against two of the nations best teams, both on the road. Covering as a +24.5 point dog at Duke losing 71-70, and covering in Knoxville vs. Tennessee as a +19.5 point dog losing by 19 (HOOK WINS AGAIN).
  • BEST COVER: At Duke +24.5 losing by 1.
  • WORST LOSS: Losing outright at home to Houston Baptist 93-91 as a -16.5 favorite. Inexcusable.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Wake was terrible. Maybe they’ll hire Tim Duncan.

CLEMSON: Overall ATS: 14-20 (12th) very bad. ACC games ATS: 10-9 (tied 5th) not so bad. Home:8-11 | Away:5-5 | Neutral:1-4.

  • Clemson started the season 1-9 ATS. Tough hill to climb for Clemson backers.
  • Clemson was 3-8 ATS as a double digit favorite.
  • Clemson was a double digit dog only once all year. They lost at Duke by 19 as a +14.5 point dog.
  • BEST COVER: A 17 point win over Lipscomb at home as a -6.5 point favorite.
  • WORST LOSS: St.Peter’s at home. Won by 5 as a -20 point favorite. This game told me Clemson wasn’t very good.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Terrible start was enough to scare even the boldest of bettors away. Clemson did get better during league play.

MIAMI(FL): The Canes went 13-19 overall and 9-11 in ACC play ATS. Their overall record placed them 14th in the ACC. Home:8-8 | Away:3-7 | Neutral:2-4.

  • 4-10 ATS to start the year.
  • Miami was favored in their first 12 games. They went 4-8 ATS in those games.
  • Miami was favored in 7 ACC games. They posted a 5-2 mark ATS in those match ups.
  • Covered at UVA as a +18 point dog losing by 10.
  • Covered at UNC as a +16 point dog losing 88-85.
  • BEST COVER: See above. Probably the UNC game.
  • WORST LOSS: Rutgers at home losing straight up by 3 as a -10.5 point favorite.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Bad start that never really improved. Miami was solid when favored in ACC play.

NOTRE DAME: The Irish were dead fucking last in the ACC going 13-20 overall. They barely stayed out of the cellar in ACC play going 7-13. Just a tough watch last year. Home:7-12 | Away:4-6 | Neutral:2-2.

  • After the Pfluger injury, Notre Dame went 2-9 ATS in their next 11 games.
  • Notre Dame was 2-5 ATS as a double digit favorite.
  • ND was 4-5 on the road ATS in the league. Two of those covers were at UNC as a +13 road dog where they lost by 6, and at UVA as a +16.5 road dog also losing by 6.
  • BEST COVER: Purdue in a neutral site game early in the year winning straight up 88-80 as a +5.5 point dog.
  • WORST LOSS: Radford at home, losing the game by 3 as a -12 point favorite.
  • BOTTOM LINE: Wipe this year from the memory bank. Coach Hunter says Notre Dame is going to be very good in 2019-2020.

STANDINGS (OVERALL):

  1. VIRGINIA: 26-12
  2. UNC: 22-12-2
  3. Ga.Tech 19-13
  4. Syracuse 19-15
  5. NC State 20-16
  6. Va.Tech 18-15-1
  7. Louisville 17-15-2
  8. Pitt 15-16-2
  9. BC 15-16
  10. Duke 18-20
  11. FSU 17-19-1
  12. Wake Forest 13-18
  13. Clemson 14-20
  14. Miami (FL) 13-19
  15. Notre Dame 13-20

Standings (ACC GAMES)

  1. Virginia 14-6
  2. UNC 14-6
  3. Syracuse 13-7
  4. Louisville 11-9
  5. FSU 11-10
  6. Ga.Tech 10-9
  7. BC 10-9
  8. Clemson 10-9
  9. NC State 10-10
  10. Duke 10-12
  11. Miami (FL) 9-11
  12. Va.Tech 8-11-1
  13. Wake Forest 7-12
  14. Notre Dame 7-13
  15. Pitt 6-13-1

Disclaimer: If i screwed up on something feel free to contact Teamrankings.com it was their fault.

Thank you for reading. Positive comments welcome. Give me a follow on the twitter @caraychimp.

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